Strategy
Bankroll management for big stakes: the professionals' method
The difference between someone staking €5,000 and someone staking €50 is not the amount — it is the system. Professionals do not ask ‘how much shall I put on?’ but ‘what percentage of the bankroll does this position deserve?’.
- 1–2 %
- Unit per bet
- 50+
- Units in the bankroll
- -30 %
- Expected drawdown
- 1×/week
- Unit review
Principle 1: The bankroll is separate
The bankroll is a sum that has been removed from your life. It is not “whatever is in the account”, not this month’s money, not topped up on impulse after a bad week. It is defined once, fed by scheduled deposits (or none) and assessed quarterly.
The test question: “If this amount went to zero tomorrow, would anything about my lifestyle change?” If the answer is yes, the bankroll is too big.
Principle 2: The unit
The unit is the percentage of the bankroll you risk on a typical bet.
| Profile | Unit | Losing streak for −50 % |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5 % | 139 |
| Typical professional | 1 % | 69 |
| Aggressive | 2 % | 34 |
| Amateur | 5 % | 14 |
| Gambling | 10 %+ | 7 |
Streaks of 10–15 losses are certain over a year for anyone betting at 1.80–2.20. The unit is chosen so that such a streak is unpleasant, not catastrophic.
Confidence scale: 0.5 unit for low-conviction positions, 1 unit standard, 2 units maximum for the best positions of the month. Never 3+, however “certain” it looks.
Principle 3: Percentage v flat
- Flat: unit = 1 % of the starting bankroll. Fixed in euros until the next review.
- Percentage (proportional): unit = 1 % of the current bankroll. Shrinks on the way down, grows on the way up.
Percentage staking is mathematically superior (it can never hit zero and benefits from compounding), but needs a calculation on every slip. The compromise most people use: a flat unit, recalculated every Monday or whenever the bankroll moves ±20 %.
Principle 4: Know your drawdown
Drawdown = the fall from the bankroll’s peak to the trough that followed. With a 1 % unit and a 3–5 % yield, a 25–35 % drawdown is normal within a year. If you cannot stomach it psychologically, reduce the unit — do not change strategy in the middle of the fall.
Set a stop level in advance (e.g. −40 %): if you hit it, stop for a month and analyse. Not because the system has necessarily failed, but because at −40 % nobody thinks clearly.
Principle 5: The log
Every bet is recorded: date, market, odds, units, result, closing odds. After 300+ bets the log answers questions memory lies about:
- Which markets am I profitable in and which not?
- Am I beating the closing line?
- How many units do I lose on matches I played “at the last minute”?
The weekly cycle
| When | What |
|---|---|
| Monday morning | Update the log, recalculate the unit |
| Midweek | Analysis, no impulse bets |
| Friday | Finalise positions, maximum 10 units of total weekend exposure |
| Sunday night | Close the app. Assessment happens on Monday, not with Sunday’s emotions |
For the mathematical calculation of the optimal stake, see the Kelly criterion. For the psychological traps of big stakes, see tilt and chasing.
FAQ
How much bankroll do I need to stake €200 per slip?▾
At a 2 % unit, €10,000. At 1 %, €20,000. If that sounds like a lot, the stake is too big for your bankroll — not the other way round.
Percentage or flat staking?▾
Percentage (the unit is recalculated from the current bankroll) protects against ruin and compounds growth. Flat is simpler and is enough for those who review the unit every week.
What do I do in a 10-bet losing streak?▾
Nothing different. Over 1,000 bets at ~2.00 a run of 10 losses is almost certain. The system exists precisely to absorb it.
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Big stakes demand more discipline, not more courage.
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